Sunday will likely be dry through dinner time…then chances for rain come for all of next week…
The Preface: Bruce said it well when he said in his note to me this morning that, "Man, this forecast is tough!" It truly is difficult, because the "bust factor" is pretty high, meaning that any small deviation in where weather systems go could bring about wildly different results for Connecticut's weather. Having written this admission, I am happy to see that the models have shown some consistency among each other in the forecast for Monday-Thursday…and this forecast is similar to previous model runs.
The Nitty-Gritty on Sunday: we expect more clouds than sunshine to prevail across the skyline Sunday as a warm front slowly meanders closer to the state. Showers may be on-going to our west, but the models consistently keep them away until after dinner Sunday. We'll still be on the more temperate side of the front, with readings likely in the upper-60s and low-70s with reasonably low humidity.
Sunday night: as the front continues to saunter closer, a few models are suggesting a little spoke of energy will be moving through, sparking a few showers over the state. As they move through, readings will stay in the 50s and skies will be cloudy all night. This small wave should exit by morning, with a little light fog and low clouds in its wake by the start of the new week.
Monday through next weekend: The "front" that will be nearing us Sunday and Sunday night will be "playing jump rope" around Connecticut, sometimes going north, allowing for warm and steamy air to enter the state and sometimes shifting south, offering a slight cool down at times. Either way, with the front close by and a relatively active jet stream, there will be several waves of shower-making low pressure passing through Connecticut. Tuesday appears to be a day when the front hedges north, allowing variably to partly cloudy skies and warm, steamy air into the state, with highs inland likely in the low/mid-80s. A few thunderstorms will fire up in the late-day sticky air. The front will meander back south Wednesday, with cloudy skies likely, as well as scattered showers and highs in the 70s. Another warm steamy, unsettled burst will come Thursday as the front snakes its way north again.
A more potent low pressure system and cold front will arrive Friday with its own thunderstorms and showers. The models are "all over the place" on the timing of this system, its strength and the potency of the cold air behind the cold front. What we can discern right now is that Friday will likely be warm and unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once the front clears, cooler, drier air will flow into New England Saturday, just in time for the beginning of Memorial Day weekend.
Hope you are having a great weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially announced yesterday that the name "Sandy" has been retired from the list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names. Sandy was a devastating storm from Jamaica to Cuba to the Mid-Atlantic States northward into coastal sections of Southern New England. Sandy will be replaced by the name Sara. Storm names are reused every 6 years, which means Sara won't appear until 2018. The hurricane season begins on June 1st and it ends on November 30th. The forecast from Colorado State University is for a very active season in 2013 with 18 named storms, 9 of which will reach hurricane strength. Of those 9 hurricanes, 4 are predicted to become major hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
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